France and Germany avoid recession as eurozone growth accelerates; Taiwan’s GDP boosted by pre-tariff surge in exports – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including growth figures from across EuropeUK house prices fall but market ‘likely to pick up’ during summerChina manufacturing activity plummets amid Trump tariff warFrance’s economy is likely to “flirt with stagnation” throughout the year, despite the small rebound in GDP in the last quarter, predicts Dutch bank ING.Charlotte de Montpellier, ING’s senior economist for France and Switzerland, explains:The additional customs duties in the US and their direct and indirect impact will delay the French economy’s rebound. We estimate that the direct effect of a permanent 10% import duty in the US on French GDP (via a reduction in exports) will be around -0.1%.Adding to this are the effects of uncertainty, the global economic slowdown and more restrictive fiscal policy, all of which will weigh on French economic activity throughout the year. The cooling in the labour market is likely to limit the recovery in household consumption, and the savings rate is set to remain high. Continue reading...

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Apr 30, 2025 - 02:30

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France and Germany avoid recession as eurozone growth accelerates; Taiwan’s GDP boosted by pre-tariff surge in exports – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including growth figures from across Europe

France’s economy is likely to “flirt with stagnation” throughout the year, despite the small rebound in GDP in the last quarter, predicts Dutch bank ING.

Charlotte de Montpellier, ING’s senior economist for France and Switzerland, explains:

The additional customs duties in the US and their direct and indirect impact will delay the French economy’s rebound. We estimate that the direct effect of a permanent 10% import duty in the US on French GDP (via a reduction in exports) will be around -0.1%.

Adding to this are the effects of uncertainty, the global economic slowdown and more restrictive fiscal policy, all of which will weigh on French economic activity throughout the year. The cooling in the labour market is likely to limit the recovery in household consumption, and the savings rate is set to remain high. Continue reading...