Russian forces advance on seven key positions: These battles will determine the fate of the conflict

An overview of the frontline situation – the key areas from north to south

Over the past month, the Russian military has advanced along seven directions in the Donbass and Kursk Region, with significant progress reported in key areas. The Kurakhovo operation in the western part of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) is nearing completion, while Russian forces are beginning to encircle the Pokrovsk urban agglomeration, further north. What follows is a detailed account of recent developments.

Kursk Region: Kiev's failed attack 

In late 2024, Moscow's forces significantly reduced the Ukrainian military’s foothold in Kursk Region — part of 'old Russia' — mitigating threats and preventing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) from advancing toward strategic locations like Lgov and Rylsk. The strategy of attrition warfare has kept this section of the front relatively static.

On January 5–6, approximately three Ukrainian battalions launched an attack on the settlement of Berdin. However, Russian troops detected their preparations early and executed counterattacks in the directions of Russkoye and Cherkasskoye, liberating Russkoye Porechnoye. Another counterattack targeted Malaya Loknya.

Photographic evidence indicates that a Ukrainian battalion was destroyed near Berdin, marking one of the AFU’s largest operations since the disastrous 2023 counteroffensive. Despite their efforts, the Ukrainian column failed to penetrate Russian minefields.

The front line remains stable following these engagements, with no signs of an imminent large-scale Russian push. Instead, attrition tactics are likely to persist until Ukrainian resources are depleted or a retreat is ordered.

Read more

Toretsk and Chasov Yar: First steps toward Konstantinovka

Months of intense fighting for Toretsk and Chasov Yar in Donetsk have started to yield results. By mid-January, Russian forces had captured a fire-retardant factory in Chasov Yar, followed by the city center, including the city council building, by January 20. The western part of the city remains under Ukrainian control, but these gains position Russian forces closer to Konstantinovka, a major target with a pre-war population of 75,000. But in order to advance in this direction, the Russian army needs to expand the area of control along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal.

In Toretsk, Russian forces captured the Tsentralnaya mine, the city center, and multiple residential areas. The AFU retains control over the Toretskaya mine and parts of Krymskoye in the northeast. Securing Toretsk allows Russian troops to move towards Konstantinovka, which is 10–11 km further along the railway line.

However, operations in these areas face challenges. In Chasov Yar, supply routes via the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal are problematic due to the canal’s depth, which reaches up to ten meters in places. Meanwhile, Toretsk’s dense urban development and challenging terrain complicate Russian advances. Despite these hurdles, progress in these sectors marks steady, albeit incremental, gains.

Pokrovsk-Mirnograd: Encirclement in Progress

Pokrovsk is emerging as a focal point for Russia’s next major offensive following the Kurakhovo operation. The strategy appears to follow a familiar pattern: encircling the city, establishing fire control over supply routes, and depleting the Ukrainian garrison’s resources.

The southern flank of Pokrovsk was formed after the capture of Selidovo in late October 2024. This area also serves as the northern flank of Kurakhovo. Indicators suggest that Pokrovsk and Mirnograd — together forming an urban area of over 100,000 people — will be targeted as a single entity.

In January, Russian units advanced toward the Pokrovsk–Mezhevaya highway in the south and the village of Vozdvizhenka in the north, cutting off the Pokrovsk–Konstantinovka highway. These maneuvers are initial steps toward encircling Pokrovsk and Mirnograd while demonstrating the potential for a broader offensive that could extend into the Dnepropetrovsk region for the first time since 2022.

Kurakhovo: The final phase of the operation 

The Kurakhovo operation began on October 1, 2024, with the capture of Ugledar. On January 6, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of Kurakhovo and its extensive industrial zone. Russian troops entered the western part of the industrial zone around New Year’s Eve, facing minimal resistance as the weakened Ukrainian garrison abandoned its positions.

Over the course of three months, Russian forces systematically surrounded the city from three sides, establishing fire control over supply lines and forcing the AFU into retreat. The flanks extended 10–15 km west, encircling Ukrainian forces outside fortified urban and industrial zones.

The operation is not yet complete, however. The capture of Andreevka and Konstantinovka is essential to stabilize the front line and fully secure this strategic area.

Broader Strategic Observations

Russian advances over the past month highlight a methodical approach characterized by encirclement, resource depletion, and steady territorial gains. While operations in Toretsk and Chasov Yar underscore the challenges of urban combat and logistical constraints, progress in Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo demonstrates the effectiveness of Russia’s offensive strategies.

The capture of Kurakhovo and advances toward Pokrovsk and Mirnograd could pave the way for operations extending into Dnepropetrovsk for the first time since 2022, potentially altering the strategic landscape.

As the conflict continues, the effectiveness of Russia’s strategy — coupled with its ability to manage logistical and operational challenges — will play a decisive role. For now, the focus remains on consolidating gains, securing supply lines, and preparing for the next phase of operations.